New Delhi: The upcoming elections for 56 Rajya Sabha seats across 15 states, which was notified by Election Commission on Monday, will see the Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA gain two seats and members of the INDIA bloc of opposition parties, one, with regional parties being the losers. If the numbers play out as expected, the NDA will emerge with 117 seats in the Rajya Sabha, an improvement over its current strength of 115 in the 245-member house.
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The Election Commission will hold polls for all 56 seats on February 27, and results will be announced the same day.
Nine Union ministers are among the MPs whose term will end in April, including IT and railways minister Ashwini Vaishnaw (from Odisha), environment minister Bhupender Yadav (Rajasthan), education minister Dharmendra Pradhan (Madhya Pradesh), health minister Mansukh Mandaviya (Gujarat), minister of micro, small and medium enterprises Narayan Rane (Maharashtra) and minister of state for IT Rajeev Chandrasekhar (Karnataka). The terms of BJP president JP Nadda (Himachal Pradesh) and former PM Manmohan Singh (Rajasthan) are also ending in April.
The ruling BJP holds 28 of the 56 seats (including one seat left vacant by party lawmaker Kirodi Lal Meena who has become a minister in Rajasthan). After the elections, it will have 29 seats.
To be sure, there are significant changes at the state level.
For instance, the BJP is set to lose two seats in Uttar Pradesh and one seat in Himachal Pradesh, but it is expected to gain two seats in Gujarat, and one each in Maharashtra and Bihar.
And while the Congress’ number will stay constant at 10 seats. it will gain two seats from Telangana but lose one seat each in West Bengal and Madhya Pradesh.
The INDIA bloc will gain two seats as the Samajwadi Party is expected to improve its tally from one to three seats.
In the 2022 Uttar Pradesh assembly election, the BJP’s tally went down by 57 seats while the Samajwadi Party gained 64 seats.
The fence-sitters, Bharat Rashtra Samithi and Telugu Desam Party, will also see their numbers in the Upper House shrink. The TDP will lose its lone seat from Andhra Pradesh and the BRS will see its strength come down from three to one in Telangana after its loss in the recent assembly polls.
On April 2, 2024, 10 Rajya Sabha MPs from Uttar Pradesh, six each from Maharashtra and Bihar, five each from Madhya Pradesh and West Bengal, four each from Gujarat and Karnataka, three each from Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, and one each from Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand will retire.
Chhattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh, Telangana, and Karnataka have all seen elections and changes in government in the past 18 months. Since Rajya Sabha members are elected by the state legislators, this will mean changes in these states.
In addition, Maharashtra and Bihar have both seen realignments and changes in governments in the past 18 months. In Bihar, the NDA has already gained as the JDU’s 5 seats are now part of the ruling alliance. In the biennial election, both sides will get three seats each.
Rajya Sabha MPs retiring from Maharshtra include Rane, former information and broadcasting, and environment minister Prakash Javadekar, and senior BJP leader V Muralidharan. Shiv Sena (UBT) MP Anil Desai, NCP’s Vandana Chavan and Congress’s Kumar Ketkar will also retire.
On April 3, 2024, three upper house members each from Odisha and Rajasthan will also retire. Rajasthan too has seen an election and a change in government but this won’t alter the current situation in the Rajya Sabha. 68 Rajya Sabha members were set to retire in 2024. In addition to the elections for 56 seats in April, polls were held on January 19 for three Rajya Sabha seats in Delhi and one seat in Sikkim. Notifications for elections will be issued on February 8 and nominations can be filed until February 15.
Nominations will be scrutinised on February 16. Candidatures can be withdrawn until February 20.
