Tokyo : Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is set to begin the next session of parliament on Oct. 5 with a new Cabinet and a stable approval rating. She enters the session with confidence but faces a series of challenges that could test her ability to turn momentum into results.
Unlike the ordinary session of parliament, which focuses first on passage of the national budget, the extraordinary session will turn immediately to key issues that the government wants to address before the end of the year. With just 69 days on the clock, her new Cabinet will be put to the test to avoid missteps in making headway on significant policy and legislative decisions.
At the top of the list is the legislation needed to actualize Takaichi’s decision to reduce the consumption tax rate for food to 1% for two years.
The proposal has already raised questions about fiscal feasibility and its economic sensibility and is set to become a focal point in parliament. Takaichi will have to win support from opposition parties in the Upper House, where the Liberal Democratic Party is a minority, while also keeping her own lawmakers in line to pass the measure.
Tax legislation will not be the only economic issue demanding the government’s attention, as Takaichi may also seek to advance measures for energy security. The ongoing war between the United States and Iran continues to affect transit through the Strait of Hormuz, while the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Houthi-backed forces in Yemen is contributing to threats to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
For Japan, which relies heavily on energy imports through these routes, the government may face pressure to address near-term energy challenges, diversify the country’s energy trade and create sustainable alternatives to these vulnerable routes.
Another potentially contentious legislation is the push to reduce the number of seats in the Lower House. As part of the coalition agreement with the Japan Innovation Party, Takaichi will have to balance between the LDP’s external partnership obligations and its internal demands. Because the issue directly affects coalition unity and lawmakers’ jobs, it could create friction at a time when Takaichi needs support for other legislative priorities.
Against this backdrop, there will also be policy decisions brought before parliament, including the promised revision of Japan’s three key defense documents: the National Security Strategy, the National Defense Strategy and the Defense Buildup Program.
The Takaichi administration is unlikely to publish the revised documents until the end of the year, in part to avoid allowing them to dominate parliamentary deliberations. That would follow the pattern of the last two revisions, which were completed in December 2013 and December 2022. However, opposition lawmakers will likely seek to raise the topic before the winter recess.
Among the more controversial elements will be defense spending, as well as the systems selected for procurement. Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi has already left certain possibilities on the table, including potential nuclear-powered submarines.
Personnel moves could also provide a point of contention. The recent Cabinet reshuffle reintroduced numerous individuals linked to the LDP’s political-funding scandals of recent years. Opposition lawmakers are likely to highlight those appointments in parliament as a way to attack the LDP-led administration.
Although parliamentary debate offers limited scope for directly challenging Cabinet appointments, opposition parties can exert influence through committee leadership and membership. Yoshitaka Saito, head of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan’s Upper House caucus, has said that his party cannot allow any lawmaker to be appointed chair of a committee at this point who has not faced an election since the scandal.
There is also the risk of missteps or gaffes by the new appointees. Unlike past iterations, Takaichi, in a first, made the personnel decisions at least partly based on her personal review of questionnaires sent out to all LDP members. This means she will bear a greater responsibility for any problems involving her appointees. She has managed so far to avoid any Cabinet resignations during her tenure, and she will need to count on that same consistency going forward.
Behind the scenes, Takaichi must manage lingering discontent among LDP members. The Cabinet reshuffle did little to resolve the underlying friction points within the party, and with contentious legislation on the docket for the next parliamentary session, there is risk that intraparty debates could become something more than an internal distraction. Disagreements may expose deeper divisions over the administration’s policy direction.
The next few months will therefore present the biggest test yet for Takaichi’s leadership, where she will need to keep her coalition, her party and her Cabinet focused during a crowded 69-day parliamentary session.
