Tokyo : The autumn session of parliament, which begins Monday, could prove to be Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s defining political moment and determine her political fortunes in 2027, as her administration faces a series of tough challenges in getting controversial bills passed during the 69-day session scheduled to end Dec. 12.
Among the at least 21 bills the government is set to submit, top priority has been placed on one that would reduce the consumption tax on food and beverages from 8% to 1% over a two-year period beginning April 1, 2027, along with introducing a new income-linked benefits program.
The tax cut and the benefits program are, the government says, temporary measures to provide relief to consumers, though they will mean a revenue shortfall of ¥5 trillion annually.
But where the funds will come from to cover these losses, and concerns about whether the government will be able to return the rate to 8% in 2029, as Takaichi has said, will be the subjects of intense focus by ruling and opposition party lawmakers.
A good portion of the consumption tax revenue is used to fund local social welfare programs. The major opposition parties are opposed to the planned reduction, and some members of Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party are also skeptical.
In addition, there are concerns that, despite Takaichi’s promise to find other sources of funding, the government will eventually be forced to issue deficit bonds. That could rattle the international bond market and drag Japan’s economy down further.
Other bills lawmakers will take up include three related to crude oil procurement due to the ongoing crisis in the Middle East. One bill provides subsidies to businesses importing crude oil without passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
The others are amendments to laws that support pipeline construction in oil-producing countries and cover insurance for crude oil transports.
The Takaichi government will also submit a bill based on national security concerns that establishes new rules regarding land acquisition by foreign nationals.
After these government-sponsored bills have been passed, the LDP and its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, also known as Nippon Ishin no Kai, will face a second tough parliamentary fight over reducing the number of parliamentary seats.
Since December 2024, a Lower House ruling and opposition party council has been looking into general electoral reform but has made slow progress. The JIP, in particular, has pushed the issue of cutting seats. The bill submitted by the ruling parties to the parliament session that ended in July was carried over to the autumn session. It will cut 45 proportional representation seats if the council fails to reach an agreement within a year’s time.
Even though it faces stiff resistance among opposition parties, especially the smaller ones with many proportional seats, as well as worries within the LDP, the JIP sees the seat cuts as a key promise to voters.
The interparty council postponed a decision after a meeting last month and said it hoped to reach a conclusion by the end of this month. It remains uncertain, however, whether the issue will be taken up for debate.
While Takaichi and the LDP enjoy the advantages of a two-thirds Lower House majority, they and the JIP must still deal with the Upper House, where the opposition parties are in control.
If the upper chamber fails to vote on a bill within 60 days of receiving it, the ruling parties have the option of invoking the 60-day rule. This allows the more powerful lower chamber to revote, and the bill becomes law if passed by the two-thirds majority.
Doing so, however, would anger the opposition and could create political problems for Takaichi with her fellow Upper House LDP members.
Political commentator Tetsuo Suzuki also says that Takaichi, whose public approval ratings remain relatively high, could see a decline in her poll numbers if she attempts to ram through the consumption tax reduction bill, in particular.
“The public is carefully watching the consumption tax debate and how it’s going to be paid for. Using the 60-day rule to pass the bill isn’t something that public opinion would approve of,” he said.
Beyond specific bills, Takaichi could also be forced to address questions about reforming the Prime Ministers’ Office.
Her July social media post about a lack of sleep and the appointment of Hideki Murai to the post of parliamentary affairs chief last month has sparked a sudden but escalating debate on how and where a prime minister should spend their time.
Murai’s appointment, along with the replacement of LDP Upper House Secretary-General Junichi Ishii by Kazuhiko Aoki — a decision Takaichi says she was not involved with — suggests the prime minister has a personal ulterior motive, Suzuki said.
“Murai believes the prime minister doesn’t need to attend parliamentary meetings that often,” he said.
“In addition, Takaichi tried to pass the budget within the fiscal year. She was blocked by Ishii, who, taking into account the opposition-controlled chamber, held committee meetings with a dissatisfied Takaichi present, resulting in a delay.”
The Upper House approved the budget for fiscal 2026, which began on April 1, on April 7.
“In short, Takaichi, with Murai’s appointment and the replacement of Ishii by Kazuhiko Aoki, seems to be trying to force a path to power without being bound by parliament,” Suzuki said.
