NDIA is keeping a close eye on the developments in the run-up to the September 21 presidential election in Sri Lanka, where public protests had led to the exit of then President Gotabaya Rajapaksa in 2022 at a time of severe economic distress. However, Sri Lanka had not dissolved its Parliament and allowed the political system to operate. This led to a consensus on former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, whose United National Party (UNP) had fallen on hard times. He was elected President by Parliament and has seen through the rest of Gotabaya’s term. Ranil is a candidate again, but this time, his Puluwan Sri Lanka front has got 34 parties backing him, including leaders who, though from other parties, are a part of his government.
Ranil has stated that there is unfinished business with regard to Sri Lanka’s economic distress. He has maintained good relations with India, China and the West for debt relief and management plans.
The main party in Parliament, the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) of the Rajapaksas, which backed Ranil for the presidency during the crisis, decided not to support him further. It has pitched for Namal Rajapaksa, son of Mahinda Rajapaksa, as their candidate. If Namal fails to perform well, the SLPP would face challenges in the parliamentary elections, likely to be held within a year.
Sajith Premadasa founded the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) after splitting from the UNP in 2020 and it has been the main Opposition front in Parliament. He marshalled his political resources to be seen as a viable candidate. He has formed an alliance with 27 small parties and mobilised public support against the government.
A potent challenger is Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the National People’s Power (NPP), which is the political wing of the radical Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP). The JVP, after its hostile activity till 1989, has become a political party and works overground. It was the mainstay of Aragalaya (the struggle), the 2022 agitation.
The people’s angst and frustration led to Mahinda’s resignation as Prime Minister; subsequently, Gotabaya quit as President. Despite having only three MPs, the NPP worked assiduously to harness public anger.
According to a pre-poll survey, Anura is leading with 43 per cent of the votes. Ranil (27 per cent) is ahead of Sajith (22 per cent). Namal has only 3 per cent support. In recent weeks, 10 per cent of the undecided voters seem to have moved in Ranil’s direction, giving his campaign a fillip. However, poll analysts in Colombo say the contest is between Anura and Sajith.
In the Sri Lankan system, there are three preferences for voters. A candidate must get 50 per cent plus of the first-preference votes to be elected President. If no candidate gets that, the second and third-preference votes of candidates, besides the top two, will be counted.
Analysts say that it is these second and third-preference votes which are likely to determine whether the second-placed candidate can upstage Anura, who is the leading choice on first-preference votes.
Should India be worried about the outcome of this election? The turmoil in Bangladesh months after January’s General Election, which was won by now-ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League, is a cause for concern. India seems to have played its cards better in Sri Lanka. During his June visit to Sri Lanka, External Affairs Minister (EAM) S Jaishankar met leaders of all hues, including Sajith and Anura. Anura made the first-ever visit by a JVP leader to India at the government’s invitation in February. He met the National Security Adviser, the EAM and others while visiting Delhi, Thiruvananthapuram and Ahmedabad. He acknowledged India’s role in helping Sri Lanka during an economic crisis two years ago. Anura said he did not follow the JVP’s old policy of being anti-India and would like to work with everybody possible.
Sajith, whose father Ranasinghe Premadasa was an anti-India UNP leader, has modulated his stance. Though invited to India, he decided not to come this year, possibly under astrological advice not to travel overseas before the election get over. In his meeting with Jaishankar in Colombo, Sajith acknowledged that India’s timely assistance was of great sustenance to Sri Lanka, and that Delhi was a valuable friend.
Ranil has been a friend to India since long. He attended PM Modi’s swearing-in in June and discussed various matters with the Indian leadership.
India has got its bases covered with all major parties in Sri Lanka and is not taking sides in this contest whose result is not easy to predict. India would have laid out its preferences to all the parties, in line with the Neighbourhood First policy, supporting economic activity and seeking a level playing field for Indian economic interests and no threats to Indian security.
Sri Lankan leaders know that when the chips were down, India provided $4-billion aid to bail the island nation out, and then participated in a debt rescheduling exercise when China did neither. Yet, China will always remain important to Sri Lanka for investment in its projects, and to balance India out. Hence, Chinese naval ships will not be prohibited from visiting Sri Lanka, but they will be advised not to carry out surveillance or anti-India activity, like it was done in the case of a research vessel two years ago.
India would have to live with this and do more, possibly with Japan, trilaterally, to build economic relationships to balance China out in Sri Lanka. India’s private sector investments in Sri Lanka and development cooperation projects are highly regarded, giving India the reputation of a good neighbour.
If this election can pass off without attracting nationalist voters’ sentiment targeting India, Delhi would have indeed learned a new lesson and implemented it.
Gurjit Singh, former Indian ambassador to Sri Lanka (Courtesy : The tribune)
